The risk of flight cancellations on some routes is looming because of the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade which has led to soaring jet fuel prices
Travellers risk being left high and dry if airlines begin cancelling flights due to Iran war(Image: Getty)
UK airlines could soon start cancelling flights because of potential jet fuel shortages – potentially hitting millions of families in the peak summer getaway.
Concerns are growing that holidaymakers and other travellers could begin to be impacted if airlines pull flights to preserve fuel supplies in the wake of disruption caused by the Middle East conflict.
It raises the risk that British families aiming to take half term breaks and the summer holidays could face major disruption, although industry chiefs insisted there were no signs of shortages at this stage.
Economist Thomas Pugh noted that some smaller airlines had already cancelled routes and added fuel surcharges. “It won’t be long before larger ones follow suit, as they have in Asia,” said Mr Pugh, of audit, tax and consulting firm RSM UK”, adding: “that’s demand destruction in action.”
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A hit to jet fuel supplies risks leading to flight cancellations(Image: ANIK)
Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary said at the start of April that it may be forced to cancel 10% of its flights this summer. He told ITV News: “We’re all facing an unknown scenario. And we are certainly looking at maybe having to cancel 5% to 10% of flights through May, June and July.”
Rico Luman, a senior economist at the investment bank ING, said: “Smaller airports will be in a weaker position than the main hubs because of less storage facilities on site. It’s limited for now, but if nothing changes and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for several more weeks to come there could be some bottlenecks over the course of May.
Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary has warned between 5% of and 10% of flights from May could be cancelled(Image: Jonathan Raa/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)
“The UK is also relatively sensitive to shortages as it produces just a minority of its own consumption, so dependency on imports is relatively high,” he added.
The threat comes after airport bosses recently warned that jet fuel stocks could run short within three weeks if oil supplies do not start to flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
Airports Council International Europe said in a letter to the EU’s energy and transport commissioners: “If the passage through the strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.”
Some airlines have already begun adding surcharges to help offset a jump in fuel costs. Virgin Atlantic has slapped on a £50 levy to economy fares, £180 on premium and £360 on first class.
The risk of possible flight groundings comes amid a mounting fuel supply crunch triggered by the Iran war.
Europe’s oil and gas industry has shrunk dramatically over the past 25 years, with North Sea production having dwindled and more than 30 refineries – 16% of refining capacity – shuttered across the continent. The contraction reflects a combination of shrinking domestic demand, rising overseas competition and, increasingly over the past decade, a government-led drive to curb greenhouse gas emissions. The upshot is that Europe has become heavily reliant on energy imports.
Europe is more dependent on jet fuel imports than for any other transport fuel. The region consumed about 1.6 million barrels per day last year, of which roughly 500,000 were imported, according to the International Energy Agency. Around 75% of those imports came from the Middle East.
Refineries in Asia, which source about 60% of their crude imports from the Middle East, were forced to scale back operations by some three million barrels per day between February and April, according to the IEA.
With Asian demand competing for scarce barrels, benchmark European jet fuel prices surged to an all-time high in mid-March.
Europe has struggled to replace the lost Middle Eastern barrels, with jet fuel imports down 13% from the 2025 average, according to analytics firm Kpler.
The last cargoes of jet fuel from the Middle East are now approaching Europe, meaning that finding replacement barrels will soon prove even more challenging – and more expensive.
With supplies critically tight, airlines and oil importers face two options: bid up prices to compete with Asia for scarce barrels, or cut consumption.
Lufthansa boss Carsten Spohr warned this week that grounding aircraft “may be unavoidable” as shortages hit major airports.
Trade body Airlines UK, in a statement issued at the weekened, insisted there was no cause for concern at this stage. It said: “UK airlines are currently not seeing disruption to jet fuel supply, in part due to the UK’s diverse fuel supply, and continue to engage with fuel suppliers and Government to monitor the situation.”
An airline source said it was difficult to say at this stage whether fares will have to rise, but added “higher fuel costs will be hard for airlines to completely absorb.”
It came amid threats of fuel protests on motorways across the UK because of the soaring cost of petrol and diesel since the Iran war erupted. Social media posts claimed farmers were planning to block major motorway junctions. It is claimed disruption could extend to London in the coming weeks.
