Exit polls for the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections have begun to come in and the usual question resurfaces: Will the BJP make a breakthrough this time. Exit polls have shows a record 14% vote share. With an increase in vote share, the BJP is likely to win 0-4 seats.
Kerala Exit Polls 2026: BJP’s vote share rises to 14% and it is projected to gain 0-4 seats.
Exit polls for the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections have showed a close content, the usual question resurfaces: Will the BJP make a breakthrough this time in a state where the political ideology strongly works against it? In a left dominant state, a dual fight between LDF and UDF, BJP has been steadily fighting to make its mark but its growth in vote share did not match its seats win.
BJP’s vote share over the years
The BJP has managed to mostly increase its vote share in both the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in Kerala, unable to convert them into seats. Exit polls projection has mostly put BJP in green areas, but with long pending victory.
Since the 1980s, BJP has won only a single seat in the state’s legislative assembly elections in 2016 and in Lok Sabha elections in 2024. From 1980s until 2016, it struggled to cross even 6 per cent of the statewide vote share. In 2016, BJP secured around 10.6 per cent of the vote, marking its strongest state-level performance. In 2021, the vote share increased slightly to 11.4 per cent.
After 2024, BJP has surprised its critics. Across constituencies, NDA’s vote share increased to 19.21 per cent in 2024 LS polls, 3.57 per cent up from the 2019 election, but no seat gains. It gained first position in 11 Assembly segments (largely due to Thrissur win) compared to only 1 in 2019, second in nine segments in five districts compared to 7 in 2019, making it a three-cornered fight in 30 of the 140 assembly segments. In 2024, BJP was second in Haripad and Kayamkulam assembly segments, ahead of Congress’s stalwart KC Venugopal by only around 1,400 votes.
Overall gains
2004–2014: Emergence in urban areas like Thiruvananthapuram and Palakkad.
2016: First Assembly election breakthrough with O. Rajagopal winning the Nemom Assembly seat, becoming the first BJP MLA in Kerala.
2021: Lost even Nemom, but gained vote share in several constituencies.
2024: Suresh Gopi, a popular Malayalam actor and Rajya Sabha MP, wins the Thrissur Lok Sabha seat.
BJP’s failure explained: Why vote share ≠ seats?
Kerala’s politics has historically been a bipolar contest between CPI(M) led LDF and the Congress-led UDF which left no scope for a third force. This is because voters have tactically voted to support the one best positioned to defeat the other. This complex system makes it difficult to gain seats for a third contender even with a high vote share projection.
Secondly, BJP’s support has been spread disproportionately across constituencies rather than concentrated.
Thirdly, the unique demography prevents BJP from spreading across the Southern state. Muslims and Christians makes up for nearly half the state’s population and have been traditionally anti-BJP. So, BJP has been trying to woo Christian communities to expand its social base, but in vain as these efforts could not be translated into a decisive electoral shift.
Also, Kerala is deeply rooted in cadre politics, especially the left- CPI(M). Most anti-BJP voters support its strongest rival, making it less about preference and more about preventing the other side.
Kerala is that state where a large number of seats depend on very thin margins, by sweeping mandates, making elections tightly contested. For example, in the 2021 Assembly elections, several constituencies were decided by a few hundred votes. With the exit polls underway, even small changes in vote share, including any increase in NOTA, could become significant in tightly contested constituencies.
Kerala Election Exit Polls 2026
As per the exit polls of Kerala election 2026, the BJP-led NDA has recorded around 14% vote share, with the projection to win 0-4 seats in the 140-member Assembly.
The Axis My India and many other polls projected a comfortable majority for UDF and said it will win 78 to 90 seats in the 140-member assembly. It said the Left Democratic Front would win 49 to 62 seats and the BJP-led NDA zero to three seats.
Even just a few seats would carry greater political significance. It would signal that the BJP is no longer just a peripheral player but an emerging third force capable of breaching Kerala’s entrenched bipolar system. Now what remains to be seen is whether the BJP will be able to consolidate this win and even expand this with a bigger vote share this time.
