Shafaq News
Nearly four months after Iraq’s November 11,
2025, parliamentary elections, the country remains trapped in a deep political
stalemate, with rival factions still unable to agree on a prime minister. The internal
dispute over leadership started from within the Shiite-led Coordination
Framework but has evolved into a broader constitutional and geopolitical
crisis, complicated by a regional war between Iran on one side and the United
States and Israel on the other.
The deadlock has effectively frozen Iraq’s
constitutional process, leaving the political class searching for last-minute
compromises while regional tensions intensify and foreign pressure mounts over
the next government’s leadership.
Elections Without A Government
Iraqis expected the elections to produce a new
executive authority capable of translating the vote into a functioning
government. Instead, negotiations have stalled over two central questions: the
identity of the next prime minister and the constitutional definition of the
“largest parliamentary bloc” tasked with forming the government.
The dispute centers primarily within the
Coordination Framework, the Shiite alliance that dominates parliamentary
politics but remains divided between supporters of former Prime Minister Nouri
al-Maliki and those backing other candidates, including the current caretaker
premier Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.
While these negotiations dragged on, a new
external variable emerged. The war between Iran and the United States-Israel
alliance —now entering its eighth day— has introduced new pressures on Iraq’s
political landscape, including direct American pressure reportedly led by US
President Donald Trump to prevent certain figures, mainly al-Maliki, from
assuming the premiership.
This overlap between domestic political
bargaining and regional conflict has raised fears that Iraq could again become
entangled in broader geopolitical struggles.
Iraq’s next Prime Minister held hostage by US-Iran standoff
Judicial Intervention And The “Largest Bloc”
Debate
Amid the stalemate, Iraq’s judiciary stepped
unexpectedly into the political debate. Supreme Judicial Council President
Judge Faiq Zidan proposed a legal interpretation aimed at restoring what he
described as the true constitutional intent behind Article 76.
Zidan’s proposal rests on a simple principle: the
electoral list that wins the most votes should automatically be recognized as
the “largest bloc.”
If adopted, this interpretation would
fundamentally alter Iraq’s government formation process. Since 2010, political
alliances have typically been formed after elections inside parliament,
allowing rival parties to merge into larger coalitions that override the actual
electoral results.
Critics have long argued that this practice
emptied the ballot box of its meaning and turned post-election bargaining into
the decisive stage of Iraqi politics.
By contrast, Zidan’s proposal would give the
winning list the exclusive right to nominate the prime minister, potentially
limiting the prolonged negotiations that have repeatedly paralyzed the system.
Haider Ali Abu Tara al-Feyli, a member of
parliament representing the Feyli Kurdish quota, said many lawmakers support
the judiciary’s interpretation. “The negotiations to form the government are
still ongoing despite the internal disagreements inside the Coordination
Framework,” he told Shafaq News.
“But Judge Faiq Zidan was clear in his latest
proposal regarding the largest bloc as a constitutional clarification, and as
members of parliament, we follow the opinion of the Supreme Judicial Council.”
Al-Feyli warned that the failure to form a
government has disrupted all state institutions, and this is “extremely
dangerous given what is happening in the region.” “It poses a direct threat to
Iraq, so the issue must be resolved in the coming days.”
Iraq slips into constitutional vacuum as presidential deadlock drags on
Washington’s Shadow Over Baghdad
Yet the optimism surrounding a legal solution
collides with strong resistance from factions inside the Coordination
Framework, particularly the State of Law coalition led by Nouri al-Maliki.
For al-Maliki’s allies, the main obstacle is not
constitutional interpretation but foreign pressure.
Aref al-Hammami, a senior member of the
coalition, insisted that “our candidate so far is Maliki, and the latest
Coordination Framework meeting reaffirmed adherence to him.” He argued that
abandoning the candidacy under American pressure would undermine Iraq’s
sovereignty.
“Changing the candidate because of American
dictates would be humiliating for national legitimacy,” al-Hammami said. “The
US government is neither wise nor respectful of agreements, and giving in to
such pressure would open the door to interference even in the details of Iraqi
ministries.”
Al-Hammami also downplayed the legal weight of
Zidan’s proposal, considering that presenting a vision, not a binding
decision,” and noting that any constitutional amendment would face significant
procedural hurdles and could be blocked if three provinces reject it.
He added that another structural obstacle lies
in the Kurdish parties’ delay in nominating a candidate for president, a step
required before the prime minister can formally be designated.
Nouri Al-Maliki’s return rekindles Iraq’s divisions as Iran and the US pull apart
Coordination
Framework Divisions Widen
Inside the Coordination Framework itself, some
voices appear increasingly pessimistic about reaching a consensus candidate.
Rahman al-Jazaeri, another political figure
within the alliance, described the situation as a clear political bottleneck
unfolding at the same time as armed conflict across the region.
“The proposal of Judge Zidan will create a new
dynamic,” he told Shafaq News.
“There are opponents to al-Sudani despite his
list having the largest number of seats —46 out of the 329-seat Iraqi
parliament. At the same time, there has been no official withdrawal of al-Maliki
and no unanimous decision by the Framework.”
According to al-Jazaeri, current meetings
between political leaders remain informal and inconclusive. He also warned that
the regional security situation could delay the formation of a government
further.
“Popular Mobilization Forces fighters are
currently being targeted by Israeli and American airstrikes,” he said. “This
will certainly delay government formation, and we may remain in a ‘state of
emergency government.’”
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A Compromise Candidate Emerges?
Behind the scenes, political circles in Baghdad
are quietly discussing another possible scenario: the emergence of a compromise
figure outside the current rivalry.
Al-Jazaeri hinted that an independent candidate
could soon enter the race, particularly after Eid al-Fitr, when a legal option
may be imposed —either dissolving parliament or reconsidering the issue of the
prime minister.
“There is now an independent personality outside
the Coordination Framework negotiations, regionally acceptable and enjoying the
approval of the senior religious authority in Najaf. This candidate may be
announced in the coming days as a consensus option.”
If such a figure gains traction, it could offer
a face-saving exit for competing factions unwilling to surrender their
preferred candidates.
Despite Zidan’s interpretation and renewed calls
by Iraq’s four presidencies —President Abdul Latif Jamal Rashid, caretaker
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, Parliament Speaker Haibat al-Halbousi,
and Supreme Judicial Council head Faiq Zidan— to accelerate the completion of
constitutional obligations, the regional war, persistent internal divisions,
and mounting foreign pressure continue to shape the calculations of Iraqi
factions and delay the formation of a new government.
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.
