2026-03-08T12:03:20+00:00
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Shafaq News- Washington
The administration of US President
Donald Trump is betting on internal unrest —particularly among Iranian Kurdish
groups— as part of a broader strategy to pressure the Iranian government amid
the escalating military confrontation with Tehran and its allied factions,
former US diplomat William Lawrence told Shafaq News on Sunday.
Lawrence, director of regional
studies at the National Council on US-Arab Relations and a professor at the
American University in Washington, said the conflict that erupted on February
28 between the US and Israel on one side and Iran on the other is part of a
long-running confrontation unlikely to end soon.
Drawing on more than 15 years of
diplomatic service in seven Middle Eastern countries, Lawrence described the
current war as an extension of decades of tension between Iran and its
adversaries rather than a short-lived crisis.
He also ruled out the possibility
that the confrontation could evolve into a Vietnam-style war, noting that
Vietnam involved a large-scale ground invasion, while there are no indications
that the United States plans to invade Iran with ground troops. Instead, in his
view, the conflict more closely resembles scenarios seen in Venezuela, Libya,
or Afghanistan before direct intervention, where air power is used to shape
developments on the ground without deploying large US ground forces.
Read more: Between war and neutrality: Kurdistan navigates US-Iran confrontation
Kurdish Uprising
According to Lawrence, Trump seeks
to pressure Iran’s political system and views unrest in Iran’s Kurdish regions
as a potentially positive development. Localized uprisings in Iranian
Kurdistan, he explained, could serve as the starting point for broader internal
instability across the country.
He compared this approach to earlier
conflicts where local forces advanced with external backing. The model
resembles the 2001 Afghanistan campaign, when Kabul fell through the advance of
“local militias” supported by US special forces and American air power.
Reports indicating Kurdish forces
have moved deeper into Iranian territory would likely suggest that those groups
received firm assurances of aerial support from US and Israeli aircraft.
Even so, he expressed doubt that
such a strategy could lead to the collapse of the Iranian government. Iran’s
military establishment and affiliated forces number roughly one million
personnel, making widespread defections unlikely. He also pointed to historical
experience suggesting that many Iranians reject leaders perceived as chosen or
supported by foreign powers, recalling lessons associated with the events of
1953.
Inside the United States
Trump, Lawrence said, remains deeply
concerned about the upcoming midterm elections. He pointed to divisions within
the American right as well as growing opposition among left-leaning voters and
independents to attacks on Iran and what they view as unconditional support for
Israel.
He explained that the administration
is seeking a swift outcome that could be presented domestically as a victory
before the elections. Losing control of both the House of Representatives and
the Senate would significantly weaken Trump politically, potentially reopening
the door to renewed impeachment efforts.
In Lawrence’s assessment, the
administration’s handling of the crisis appears closely tied to electoral
considerations, with the possibility that Washington may ultimately seek
symbolic concessions from Iran similar to those he believes were achieved in
cases such as Denmark’s position on Greenland or recent dealings with
Venezuela.
Twenty-one Countries Involved
The professor also revealed that the
conflict has expanded beyond the immediate parties involved, saying that 21
countries are currently participating militarily in various forms. Among those
recently joining operations are Azerbaijan, Greece, France, and the
Netherlands, while Egypt remains the only major Middle Eastern country that has
not entered the conflict directly so far.
Russia and China, he added, are
supporting Tehran through weapons supplies, intelligence sharing, and drone
technology, though there are currently no indications that Moscow or Beijing
intend to enter the fighting directly with their own forces.
The war, he concluded, is unlikely
to produce a decisive military victory for either side. Instead, it will likely
end only after the parties reach a stage of exhaustion, eventually forcing
negotiations toward a ceasefire or a fragile settlement. For Iran, the survival
of the regime itself would amount to victory, while for Washington, success
would mean forcing a change in the regime’s behavior.
For Shafaq News, Mostafa Hashem,
Washington, DC.
