Four of the last six meetings between these sides ended in draws. That is the number that shapes everything about Monday at Portman Road. Ipswich are favourites at 60% according to Opta and Birmingham have lost three away games in a row, but this fixture has a habit of producing less than you expect.
Check the best available odds below before kick-off.
Match Preview
Ipswich are fourth on 69 points, seven games unbeaten, three points off Millwall in second. They drew 1-1 with Millwall last time out which felt like two points dropped rather than one earned. Monday is a chance to actually win at home against a side with nothing left to fight for.
Birmingham sit 14th on 53, one win in their last six, three straight away defeats. Their last road point came on February 21 against Norwich. Since then four away games, four losses. Coming to Portman Road where Ipswich have taken 43 points from 60 available this season is not an obvious place to end that run.
Jack Clarke has scored in Ipswich’s last two matches and finds the net in 40% of their home games this season. Fourteen goals in the Championship, third highest in the division, five of them the first goal of the game. If Ipswich score early Monday it gets difficult for Birmingham very quickly.
But the head-to-head pattern is worth respecting. Ipswich have won just one of their last five against Birmingham despite being unbeaten in all five. Four draws across those games and fewer than three goals in each of Birmingham’s last five visits. Ducksch with 10 goals and Stansfield with nine give Birmingham enough to make it uncomfortable even when they are not playing well.
Team News
Clarke starts for Ipswich after scoring in consecutive games. No injuries flagged for the home side.
Ducksch and Stansfield lead Birmingham’s attack. The Blues travel low on confidence but with enough quality to score if Ipswich switch off.
Our Prediction: Ipswich Town 1-0 Birmingham City
Ipswich need the win more, have the better home record, and have Clarke in form at exactly the right time. Birmingham’s away record makes it hard to back them getting anything here. One goal decides it and it comes from the home side.
Tip: Under 2.5 Goals. Fewer than three goals in each of Birmingham’s last four games and in each of their last five against Ipswich specifically. This one stays tight. Back the under and collect.
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