A ‘historically strong’ Super El Niño weather event may see Irish temperatures rise and cause disruption to regular weather patterns, according to Met Éireann
El Niño
A ‘historically strong’ El Niño weather event could lead to rising Irish temperatures and some disruption to typical weather patterns.
El Niño describes warm surface waters in the Eastern tropical Pacific. It was originally observed centuries ago by Peruvian fishermen whose fish stocks were affected. The El Niño phenomenon represents the oscillation between warm Eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature conditions (El Niño) and cold Eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature conditions (La Niña), according to Met Éireann.
This natural variation between the two conditions affects weather and climate globally. However, its impacts on Ireland have been forecast to be modest, though not insignificant.
“There has been much talk about the coming El Niño weather event this summer and through the next 12 months and the possible ramifications for our weather” reports Cathal Nolan of Ireland’s Weather Channel.
“While El Niño does have a major impact on global weather patterns typically the impacts are more subtle across Ireland, the UK and Europe as a whole. However, given the strength of the forthcoming event, perhaps reaching historically high levels, there is a greater chance of disruption to our own weather.”, reports Dublin Live.
“To emphasise this, the June update from the ECMWF in red lines, is compared with the May update and it’s very clear we can see a growing risk of a major El Niño. The latest trend would almost certainly see this coming El Niño breach into a Super El Niño (+2 degrees Celsius with the trend heading for +3).
“The currently developing strong El Niño has the potential, together with the underlying global warming trend, to lead to record high global mean temperatures in the second half of 2026 and in 2027, and to extreme weather events” said Met Éireann.
“While El Niño has clear impacts on many regions worldwide through teleconnections (for example affecting monsoon systems), its influence on Ireland and Europe is comparatively weak, highly variable, and not robust in the present-day climate” said the national forecaster.
Here is Met Éireann’s forecast for the upcoming week:
Saturday
Spells of rain and drizzle, heavy and prolonged in certain areas, will continue to push eastwards but will persist across Ulster and north Leinster for much of the day. A clearance to scattered showers will extend from the west, bringing some sunny intervals during the afternoon and evening, though further rain and drizzle will make a return to western coastlines late in the evening. Top temperatures will range between 12 and 16 degrees as winds turn moderate to fresh westerly. Tonight will be rather cloudy with patchy rain and drizzle, though parts of the east and south will remain largely dry with occasional clear spells and overnight lows of 8 to 12 degrees.
Sunday
It will be another overcast day as outbreaks of rain sweep in from the west, turning widespread, persistent, and at times heavy. Brighter intervals with sunshine and showers will follow later in the afternoon across the west and northwest before gradually pushing eastwards, with top temperatures climbing to between 13 and 18 degrees in moderate to fresh southwest winds. Sunday night will bring clear spells and occasionally heavy showers in the west and north, while eastern areas will clear up early in the night with overnight lows of 7 to 10 degrees.
Monday
The week will kick off on a bright note with a combination of sunshine and showers, some of which could be heavy. Cloud will build from the west as the evening approaches, bringing further bouts of rain and drizzle. Temperatures will peak between 12 and 15 degrees in moderate west to southwest winds, which will strengthen along western coastlines.
Tuesday
Tuesday will follow a similar pattern of showers and sunny intervals, with some heavy downpours and the chance of isolated thunderstorms. Top temperatures will range from 12 to 15 degrees, feeling warmest in the south, in moderate to fresh westerly winds.
Wednesday
Most parts of the country will enjoy a bright start to the day with only isolated showers. Cloud is expected to build throughout the afternoon, bringing spells of rain into the evening and overnight. Highest temperatures will sit around 13 to 15 degrees in moderate westerly winds that will veer southerly later, turning fresh at times along western and southwestern coastlines.
Thursday
The morning will begin on a wet note with heavy and persistent rain clearing eastwards. Showers will follow during the afternoon, turning heavy at times, though occasional sunny spells will break through. Top temperatures will reach 14 to 18 degrees in moderate to fresh and occasionally gusty southwest winds.
Next weekend
Showers will continue across the weekend, though they are expected to become more scattered and ease through Saturday and Sunday, allowing more frequent sunny spells to develop.
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