1 de 2
Tarcísio de Freitas — Foto: Agência Alesp Tarcísio de Freitas — Foto: Agência Alesp
São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), who is running for reelection, leads the race with 46% of first-round voting intentions, according to a Datafolha poll released Sunday (5). Former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (Workers’ Party, PT) comes in second at 30%, the survey found.
The rest of the field—all candidates on the left—trails well behind in the prompted poll, where respondents are read the names of the prospective candidates. Vera Lúcia (Unified Workers’ Socialist Party, PSTU) polls at 5%, while Carlos Machado (Communist Party of Brazil, PCB) and Vivian Mendes (Popular Unity, UP) each have 4%. Blank, null or no-vote responses add up to 8%, and another 3% say they haven’t decided yet.
Stripping out blank and null ballots, Datafolha puts Tarcísio at 52% of valid votes. Winning outright in the first round requires 50% of valid votes plus one. Haddad has 34% of valid votes.
Datafolha interviewed 1,608 voters across 71 municipalities between Wednesday (1) and Friday (3), with a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points. As Folha de S.Paulo notes, though, it’s too early to say the governor would win outright if the election were held today—blank and null votes historically climb the closer you get to Election Day.
The poll, registered with Brazil’s Electoral Court under codes SP-01703/2026 and BR-06481/2026, is the first to capture the now-settled field of candidates in the state. Since Datafolha’s last São Paulo survey, released March 5, both Kim Kataguiri (Mission) and Paulo Serra (Brazilian Social Democracy Party, PSDB) have dropped out of the race for the Bandeirantes Palace—cementing expectations of a head-to-head contest between Tarcísio and Haddad. As Valor has reported, that matchup is already shaping both campaigns’ strategies.
Over the same stretch, allies of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) also came into sharper focus, with Simone Tebet (Brazilian Socialist Party, PSB) and Marina Silva (PT) both launching Senate bids. Late March also brought word that Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB)—once floated as a possible gubernatorial candidate—would run again as Lula’s running mate instead.
Tarcísio holds 52% of valid votes, but the calendar rules out calling a first-round win just yet
2 de 2 Fernando Haddad — Foto: Divulgação Fernando Haddad — Foto: Divulgação
Datafolha’s numbers show the incumbent beating Haddad handily in a runoff: 53% to 37%. Haddad is also the most rejected candidate among São Paulo voters—47% say they’d never vote for him under any circumstances, versus a 29% rejection rate for Tarcísio.
The poll also spells out Haddad’s uphill battle in the state’s interior, home to 53% of São Paulo’s electorate. There, Haddad polls at just 26% against Tarcísio’s 49%. Even in the city of São Paulo, the governor leads, though by a tighter margin—43% to 35%. Haddad is expected to try to chip away at that resistance by launching his campaign at an event in Ribeirão Preto.
Tarcísio outperforms his statewide average among men (52%), voters over 60 (51%), and evangelical Christians (56%), among other groups. Among those who backed Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 presidential runoff, his support hits 79%; among voters planning to back Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Rio de Janeiro)—the Liberal Party’s (PL) likely presidential candidate—it’s 77%.
Haddad, for his part, draws 62% support among voters who backed Lula in the last presidential election, rising to 66% among those planning to vote for Lula again this year.
Bolsonaro’s support still carries real weight: 27% of respondents said they’d definitely vote for a candidate he endorsed, 22% said they might, and 49% ruled it out. Lula’s pull is smaller—19% said they’d definitely back a candidate he endorsed, 23% said they might, and 54% said no.
This article was translated from Valor Econômico using an artificial intelligence tool under the supervision of the Valor International editorial team to ensure accuracy, clarity, and adherence to our editorial standards. Read our Editorial Principles.
Mais recente
Próxima
Military court likely to spare generals convicted over coup plot
