New Delhi: The southwest monsoon has gathered pace after making landfall on the Kerala coast on June 4. Within just 72 hours, it has spread across 11 states, bringing rain to large parts of southern and northeastern India. It is one of the fastest advances witnessed this season.
According to the latest update from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon has reached Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. Rainfall has been recorded across these states.
On Sunday (June 7), the weather department said the monsoon had covered the entire states of Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram and had advanced further into parts of Tripura, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.
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Heavy rain alert for south and northeast
The IMD has warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall in Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and several northeastern states over the next seven days. Rainfall between 7 cm and 20 cm is expected at isolated locations during this period.
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Karnataka could face particularly intense weather between June 8 and June 10. The department has warned that some places in the state may receive extremely heavy rainfall during these three days.
The rapid spread of the monsoon has brought relief to many regions that had been dealing with high temperatures. It has brought relief for farmers in several parts of the country who preparing for the kharif sowing season to begin.
Arrived three days late
This year’s monsoon reached Kerala on June 4, three days later than the usual arrival date of June 1. Last year, it had arrived much earlier, touching the Kerala coast on May 24 and covering the entire country by June 29.
Despite the strong beginning, the IMD’s seasonal forecast suggests that rainfall during the June-September southwest monsoon season could be below the long-term average.
In its second-stage long-range forecast issued on May 29, the weather department projected rainfall at around 90 percent of the long-period average for the country as a whole. That places the season in the below-normal category.
The outlook is also a concern for the monsoon core zone across central India, where farming depends on seasonal rainfall. The forecast suggests lower-than-normal rainfall in several parts of this region as well.
El Niño may influence rainfall from July
Scientists monitoring ocean and atmospheric conditions have said that there is a possibility of El Niño developing during the monsoon season. According to assessments made through the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), the conditions may begin developing around July.
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Meteorologists say this is one of the factors behind expectations of lower rainfall during the season. El Niño can affect rainfall patterns across the Indian subcontinent and influence farming activity during the kharif season.
North India still facing heat
Even as rain-bearing clouds move across southern and northeastern India, people in Delhi-NCR and several northern states may have to wait longer for relief.
The IMD has warned that the national capital, Haryana, Punjab, western Uttar Pradesh and large parts of Rajasthan are likely to continue experiencing heatwave over the coming days.
Light rain, thunderstorms and gusty winds are expected at isolated places in Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh and Punjab on June 11 and 12. However, the department has also issued a heatwave warning for many areas between June 8 and June 11. Daytime temperatures are expected to rise again, adding to both heat and humidity.
Eastern Uttar Pradesh may receive scattered rain between June 10 and June 12, while western Uttar Pradesh could receive rainfall at a few places on June 11 and 12. Heatwave conditions are still likely in eastern Uttar Pradesh on June 9 and 10 and in western Uttar Pradesh from June 9 to June 11.
Rajasthan faces some of the toughest weather conditions in the coming days. Western parts of the state may experience dust storms, with wind speeds reaching 50 to 60 kmph and gusts touching 70 kmph. Heatwave are expected to continue from June 8 to June 12. Eastern Rajasthan could receive isolated rainfall along with strong winds between till June 12.
In the Himalayan region, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh are expected to receive intermittent rainfall until June 12. Himachal Pradesh may see light to moderate rain till June 8 and again on June 11-12, while Uttarakhand is likely to receive similar weather activity through June 12.
Central India is also expected to witness rain and thunderstorm. Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and the Vidarbha region are likely to experience showers accompanied by strong winds over the next few days. Wind speeds may reach 40 to 50 kmph in parts of Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha, while Chhattisgarh is expected to see similar conditions until June 12.
